‘Too early’ to tell if US and Iran can avoid ‘regional escalation’ after retaliatory strikes

ASPI Senior Analyst Dr Malcolm Davis says it is “too early” to tell if the United States and Iran can avoid a “regional escalation” after the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian-backed targets in Iraq and Syria. The US airstrikes were in response to the drone attack in Jordan, which killed three American soldiers. US President Joe Biden had previously warned of a ‘tiered response’ over time, so it is this airstrike is unlikely to be the last. The US Central Command says the military struck more than 85 targets, using more than 125 precision munitions. “The US has to carefully calibrate its continuing strikes against the IRGC and the militias in a way that degrades their capability to carry out further attacks against US forces,” Mr Davis told Sky News Australia. “But [they need to ensure it] doesn’t go over some sort of national red line with Tehran that would lead to an immediate Iranian retaliation – either directly or indirectly – through mining the Strait of Hormuz for example, I think it’s too early to say we can avoid that region escalation. “[Iran] could respond in the Red Sea with further attacks by the Houthis, or it could doing something in the Strait of Hormuz, but the Biden administration is very clearly desperate to avoid escalation of this war. “In one sense, that’s entirely understandable – no one wants a regional war – but at the same time, it does see the initiative to a degree to Tehran to see how far they can push the Biden administration and what the Biden administration’s red line is.”